The First Saturday in May

There’s two things I can expect on the first Saturday in May: the Kentucky Derby will be run and my old friend, Tim Enck, will give me his predictions for the biggest horse race in the world.

Tim and I have been friends for more than twenty years, although I haven’t had the great pleasure of seeing him in person for a long while now. I’m determined to change that this year and catch up with the elusive one.

We met while I was living in New York and in addition to establishing a brotherly kind of bond, we also were immensely fascinated with horseracing. We spent many weekends at Belmont Park and managed to sneak into an Off-Track Betting parlor from time to time during the week. For a time, Tim moved upstate near Massachusetts and when I visited him we would satisfy our appetite for the sport in the New Lebanon, New York OTB.

Tim was a longshot player and as such, didn’t win often, but when he did. Holy Toledo! In the span of a few weeks, maybe it was a week or two, he hit two big trifectas and won several thousand dollars. When he hit one of those big ones, we were standing under the television monitors in the New Lebanon OTB watching the last race of the day from Finger Lakes, I think it was.

I said to Tim, just as the horses crossed the finish line, “This is going to be a big one.”

I turned to look at him and he was nervously chewing on a plastic straw and his eyes were wider than usual. Otherwise, he was silent and still.

“Did you win?” I said. He simply nodded affirmatively and it was I that became more animated as if I’d just hit the lottery. Tim just stood there kind of sort of smiling. Kind of. I think.

There was many a day that we’d be playing the horses and he’d tell me his prediction and I would say, “No chance. If that horse wins I’ll never play the horses again.” I don’t think he ever liked my saying that. I may have been wrong once. Longshots do come in from time to time.

He and I don’t bet the horses anymore but we still get the bug to analyze and predict the outcome of the Derby when it rolls around. My analysis is as follows:

The winner will come from this group: Orb, Verrazano, Goldencents, Java’s War, Revolutionary, Lines of Battle, Govenor Charlie and Normandy Invasion. Of those, Verrazano and Goldencents are the logical favorites.

Verrazano has tons of speed and has been able to relax just off the lead as well as go to the front.  In his last race, the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct in Queens, New York, he seemed to give a little more when asked although the race on paper looks close.

There are a couple of things about Verrazano, however, that stand out. One, he didn’t race as a two-year-old, starting his career on New Year’s Day of this year. The winner of the race in 1882, Apollo, is the only horse to ever win without racing as a two-year-old. And two, Verrazano is facing a stronger challenge than in his previous four races, all victories; he is facing stiffer competition and, like all the horses in the field, will be asked to go one-and-a-quarter miles for the first time.

Goldencents looked sharp in winning the Santa Anita Derby last out and posted a high speed figure, a numerical measurement of his speed compared to all races by all horses at all tracks. Although he runs near the front, he seems to be better coming from just off the lead and not setting the pace.

So, what of the others:

Orb is perfectly bred for the distance and has the right running style for this race.Two races back he won coming from behind on a speed-favoring track, but his speed figures are so-so.

Revolutionary is agile and game and also well-bred. He comes from way off the pace. His speed figures are not great, although he seems to run just fast enough to be close at the end. He might surprise.

Lines of Battle has shipped in from Ireland where few races are not run on grass. In four races on the turf he has a first and a second at shorter distances. But in his two races on a synthetic surface that is more like dirt, he has two victories, one of them in Dubai at a mile and three-sixteenths. He has raced at a distance farther than the rest of the Derby field and seems to like dirt.

Of the others, Govenor Charlie grabbed my attention for his breeding and improving speed figures. He is the lightest-raced horse in the field with only three races. Like Verrazano, he would have to defy the odds against a horse that did not race as a two-year-old, and he’s facing better animals here. He runs near the lead and it looks on paper that he won’t be able to keep up with some of the others in this race. A great unknown.

I don’t expect Normandy Invasion or Java’s War to win, but their running styles suit this race and they may come picking up the pieces at the end.

So how would I bet this race? I wouldn’t bet much if anything. None of the horses stand out like I’ll Have Another did last year. And since I wouldn’t wager more than a few dollars, I’d try to get some value, so I might put a couple of bucks each on Orb and Lines of Battle to win, and maybe throw in Revolutionary in exactas with Verrazano and Goldencents. Ten bucks for two minutes of entertainment.

And what would Tim do?

“Hi Robert- It is that day again. Looking for a price. $2 exacta box Verrazano over Oxbow, Golden Soul, Itsmyluckyday, and Vyjack. $2 superfecta part wheel Verrazano over Golden soul, Oxbow, Itsmyluckyday and Vyjack. Total bet- $48, expected return $6500. Be well, D. Wayne Enck”